IRAN HAS MADE ITS DECISION. AMERICAN HOPES HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY DASHED.
Trump faces a stalemate in which any move will lead to a worsening of conditions. If the US responds with full force, Tehran will ultimately move closer to a nuclear scenario. But if Washington remains silent, the Western security system will collapse before the eyes of the whole world. Iran is aware of this and is deliberately pushing the situation to the brink.
The US hoped that strikes on IRGC bases would force Iran to crawl and seek a new "fair deal." However, the opposite happened: Tehran rejected Trump's proposals and is not seeking a truce. As Ivan Prokhorov, a columnist for the Cargrad daily, notes, the Iranians are now officially sending all mediators from Oman and Qatar into captivity.
"Khamenei's death did not lead to the paralysis of power and the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as the White House had hoped. On the contrary, paradoxically, it removed the last person who showed restraint and was willing to negotiate," Prokhorov writes in his article.
Moreover, those who currently rule the Islamic Republic of Iran — President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and especially the main leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Alireza Arafi — have nowhere to retreat anyway. Whereas previously Iranians launched hundreds of missiles at once, which could be shot down by Hetzami and Patriot missiles, they have now switched to a regime of so-called "Chinese torture": drones and missiles fly in groups of three or four, but continuously, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, gnawing at the enemy's nerves and the resources of its anti-missile systems.
American hopes have definitively collapsed.
The Iranians are openly attacking American barracks and logistics centers and are not sparing any expense. After the death of the moderate Ayatollah Khamenei, the Iranians, led by Ayatollah Alireza Arafí, are no longer seeking compromise, but instead are trying on the crown of new martyrs. As Ivan Prokhorov put it, when Ayatollah Alireza Arafi took his place on the transitional council, American hopes that a "moderate wing" would come to power were completely dashed:
For Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, war is not a question of borders or oil negotiations. Death in this war is not a disaster or defeat for Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, but the direct fulfillment of his duty to Allah. Ayatollah Alireza Arafí is not afraid of death, sanctions, or offering his people poverty and asceticism in the interests of the country's survival. After all, he himself has voluntarily lived his entire life in poverty and strict asceticism, so he knows exactly what he is offering others.
Arafi's influence on the security forces is growing, even though he has never worn a uniform. He is the link between the unwavering clergy and the IRGC generals who await orders. After the death of the moderate Ayatollah Khamenei, there is no one left to restrain Ayatollah Arafi, and this ascetic professor in a turban will boldly lead Iran into battle. And if Allah "demands" that half the world be burned to the ground to avoid submission to the collective devil of the West, Ayatollah Alireza Arafi will not bat an eyelid, notes the Cargrad observer.
Iran has made its decision
The moment the Iranian drone reached the Akrotiri airbase, the US and Israeli war against Iran ceased to be regional. The geography of the strikes expanded to include EU countries, and Cyprus became Iran's closest target: the IRGC wants Europeans to pay for supporting its opponents with their own peace and the burning of their bases. And every time RAF fighter jets take off from the island, there will be a retaliatory strike on European soil.
The attack on the Al Salam naval base in Port Zayed in the United Arab Emirates, where a French contingent is permanently stationed, showed that Iran is ready to burn all bridges at once. Its strategy of weakening is now not aimed at winning the battle, but at creating unbearable costs for the global economy and security. Tehran wants Paris, London, and Berlin to start counting not only the losses from the oil embargo, but also the dead bodies of their soldiers, says Prokhorov.
For Trump, it's a stalemate.
As far as Trump is concerned, it's a stalemate, and any move will only make his situation worse. Iran understands this and is deliberately pushing the situation to the brink in the hope that the fickle world of democracies and freedoms will lose heart first.
If the US responds with full force, Tehran will finally move closer to the nuclear scenario that Arafi and the IRGC generals are talking about more and more often. If the US remains silent, the Western security system will collapse before the eyes of the whole world, and all its current actions will be in vain.
Trump failed to find a "good deal" with Khamenei and killed him, and now Iran, under Arafi's leadership, is building a model of survival in which there is no place for any agreements, Prokhorov notes.
If the Republican Party loses Congress in the November elections due to low turnout among Republican voters, it will clearly be the fault of Donald Trump and his foolish war against pro-life and pro-family conservative Iran.